I don't pretend to know the answer but this is ultimately a question of statistical probability rather than one of pure engineering absolutes. We don't even have to conduct actual tests as such because we know that many world class competitors routinely use 8's through tight chokes for almost all of their shooting so we know observationally at least that the evidence exists that very small shot such as 8's and 7.5's will break some very extreme targets. It is possible that much larger shot such as 6.5's will make up for their sparsity by increased kinetic energy and so even things up in the end. It is also possible that they won't because at extended range we at least empirically know that even very small shot and (their greater numbers) will not have sufficient density to affect multiple hits every time so the conclusion could plausibly be drawn that even single strikes from small shot can bring about a break. How else could you explain a string of breaks from a 7.5 on an extreme bird as witnessed almost daily. Bear in mind that (at long range) multiple hits will NOT arrive on the clay at the exact same time so it's not as if multiple implies instantaneous dumping of the combined energy.All fair comments to be honest. I shot a 60yd midi crosser with a small face at Orston the other week and 3/4 choke with 7 shot Trap shells, and broke it most convincingly 3 out of 4 times. I put it down to the individual shooter and their chokes. Certainly with my combination, I have full confidence on longer birds with 7 shot and tighter chokes. Is 6.5 shot necessary?.........in the real world probably not........but......I have shot some seriously long birds with 6.5 shot and as an engineer, bigger balls mean bigger hammer!!! It becomes necessary if it gives the individual shooter confidence on a shot that is deemed long and difficult. Going into a stand with 8's and 1/4 choke will not give many experienced clay shots a lot of confidence if a Midi is belting along edge on in the wind at 60yds!!!
What I would be interested in though is actual tests to find out whether one or the other is superior. In fairness most serious shooters won't be using 1/4 choke but it's perfectly possible to imagine that even if they did, the pattern percentages would trump a tight 6.5, bearing in mind one has 410 pellets against a mere 250.
My own personal experiences when using even 7's for particularly distant dying/dropper type targets has been very inconclusive, namely that I felt 7.5's did the better job. It's an interesting subject but without stringent and laborious field tests it remains one which depends on shooter confidence more than infallible logic.