COVID-19 and Game season 20/21

[ips]

I think its possibly the timescale for achieving full vaccination of sufficient people that`s the issue tbh.

I agree, plus as there is no clear answer as to how long the vaccine lasts plus if you can transmit it if vaccinated plus how effective it actually is given the relatively small number of people it was tested on and for a very short time......who knows were we will be in the future. I suspect covid will be with us for a long long time if not forever and normality as our generations know it will not return in any of our lifetime 

 

[Jonny English]

As far as I can see the idea isn't to vaccinate everybody, the idea is to vaccinate approx 15m elderly and vulnerable people by mid February. These 15m people make up approx 88% of all hospital admissions. When the hospital admissions get to a level that normal care can resume then we start to get some of our freedoms back. With almost 6m already having their first dose this is well on the way. Having the vaccine doesn't stop you from transmitting covid, it stops you from being a burden on the NHS, covid is here to stay for life now, we're just in the process of learning to live with it. When the NHS can cope well enough we get back to shooting.

 

[Lloyd]

I second what @Jonny English said.

“

Having the vaccine doesn't stop you from transmitting covid, it stops you from being a burden on the NHS, covid is here to stay for life now”

Future mutations are likely. The scientists working on vaccines seem confident they can stay one step ahead of those mutations with regular testing and research. Seems the principle mutation mode of Corona virus is modifying the protein spikes and scientists now seem to be able to predict what will come next. Remains to be seen of course, but I’m optimistic.

 

[RJD]

I’d dearly love to see the real data and not the hack journo sensationalist opinion.  Talking of which, what choke for GMB presenters?

 

[Garwood]

As far as I can see the idea isn't to vaccinate everybody, the idea is to vaccinate approx 15m elderly and vulnerable people by mid February. These 15m people make up approx 88% of all hospital admissions. When the hospital admissions get to a level that normal care can resume then we start to get some of our freedoms back. With almost 6m already having their first dose this is well on the way. Having the vaccine doesn't stop you from transmitting covid, it stops you from being a burden on the NHS, covid is here to stay for life now, we're just in the process of learning to live with it. When the NHS can cope well enough we get back to shooting.

Agree but the problem is that 15m is actually 30 m jabs to achieve protection of whatever % is achieved with the vaccine.its a lot of people to process!!!

 

[Jonny English]

Agree but the problem is that 15m is actually 30 m jabs to achieve protection of whatever % is achieved with the vaccine.its a lot of people to process!!!

Yes that is also correct, but 70% protection is achieved on the first ***, at current rates that should take almost 2/3 of the hospital admissions out of the equation when they reach the 15m mark. Bearing in mind the current flu *** is only 40 to 50% effective, even the first dose of the Oxford *** is giving huge protection.

Average case numbers have been dropping significantly for a couple of weeks now and hospital admissions are just on the turn and starting to drop slightly in these last few days. By the time the jabs and lowering infection rates have had time to take effect we should be starting to see some improvement by end of this month/ start of February. We're going in the right direction people, plenty to be optimistic about, keep the faith

 

[FlyingTrotter]

I tend to agree with your assessment JE and share your cautious optimism we will see a return to tiers in April/May

as I understand it virus mutations generally increase transmission but reduce severity of infection/mortality rate - let’s hope this follows that path in time

 

[Paul120]

I do worry that the restriction thing will become a norm to some extent. 

The anticipation is that the vaccine will bring the numbers down. Great news, however Covid will probably be around for the forseeable. The number of cases per year will depend on how long the vaccine is effective. If yearly booster are required then people will forget or not bother.

the flu kills from what I hear around 15 to 17,000 a year and people still resist having it due to not thinking they will need it or thinking they might feel unwell for a day or two and the Antivaccers.  This attitude will I expect carry over to the Covid vaccine so we may see similar numbers to the Flu ever year going forward.

So what will be the threshold that they start bring in in restrictions ? 

As far as I know we've never locked  down for the flu. Will that be the same for covid  as it is more in focus and a hot topic that will attract more of a willingness to bring in restriction?   I guess  much will depends on the approach of the authorities and hos much they are influenced by general public opinion.

They are saying today that even if you've had the vaccine you can still spread it.  It would be ashame to have your personal liberty taken away  if you've had the vaccine  to protect someone with a missguided ethical stance etc who hasn't had the vaccine or  a subsequent booster.

 

[Garwood]

Wouldn`t hold my breath but let`s hope we get some days out next season! It`s easy to lose sight of normality in these strange times!!!!

Keep safe everyone.

 

[ips]

Wouldn`t hold my breath but let`s hope we get some days out next season! It`s easy to lose sight of normality in these strange times!!!!

Keep safe everyone.

And you

 

[RJD]

Feels a long, long way off!  

 

[ColinD]

Their already priming us that Covid isn't going away, just like flu, and we will be living with it and have to adapt to it like the flu.I think a flu/covid *** will be the norm from now on.

It's all what is acceptable to the population and if the healthcare side can cope, hopefully as time go's on and with heard immunity and science, the phrase I had a touch of Covid will be all we hear

 

[RJD]

Well, AGM today and our syndicate is shelved this season too..

 

[Garwood]

A shame but an understandable conclusion,to come to.You can`t predict where we`ll be later this year atm.

 

[FlyingTrotter]

I am cautiously optimistic - it’s really a bet on whether Boris avoids the need to execute what he termed a “reverse ferret” - if they vaccinate all the adult population that agree to be vaccinated by end August hard not to see a material reduction in hospitalisation and deaths - let’s see what is said on Monday but I am expecting a slow move to release restrictions ahead of good vaccine coverage and then there may still be a need for lateral flow testing to show you are negative to access some venues/ events 

Having been vaccinated and tested negative within 24 hrs could well be a requirement for commercial shoots

 

[RJD]

Problem for us is buying days is ok but to put in about 4K each and having birds down to then not go ahead is a headache.  Also not having birds down means we can use this year to make big changes that are otherwise difficult.

 

[FlyingTrotter]

Completely understand the syndicate challenge - I would expect a lot to take the lower risk option - I only hope many can remain viable post COVID when many syndicate members will be 2 years older and the many various challenges shooting facing will still be present 

 

[ips]

My DIY syndicate is going ahead but I feel it may be a gamble as was the case last year when we ended up shooting three days out of nine

 

[Garwood]

We can but hope !!!

 

[Shooting Muppet]

Just had an email which may of interest to some.  A syndicate i used to be a member of is moving to 6 guns only this year due to expected restrictions in the gun bus.  As a result they have 3 guns spare at 50% increase in subs from last year and as such 100% of when i was a member 3 years ago (and it felt pricey then), people are dropping out as its too expensive.

I wonder what will happen if every follows suit?