Umm, it's not going to be cheap.
and we all know how good these agencies are at forecasting costs
4.4.2.2.1 Shooter substitution costs As in 4.4.2.1.1, the Agency anticipates that, under a derogated restriction on TS with lead shot, a variety of costs would occur directly to shooters in substituting away from lead shot to alternative shot. These costs can be classified as either one-off or on-going costs. The same assumptions apply here as those outlined in section 4.4.2.1 of this opinion (explored in further detail in section 2.6.1.1.1 of the Background Document). In terms of one-off costs, shooters may face: • The cost of purchasing a new shotgun in order to shoot alternatives to lead shot. The Agency estimates this cost to total £241.1m in PV terms. • The cost of modifying their existing shotguns(s) in order to shoot alternatives to lead shot. The Agency estimates this cost to total £12.0m in PV terms. • Any re-proof that may be required after such modifications. The Agency estimates this cost to total £1.7m in PV terms. In terms of on-going costs, shooters may face: • Costs due to more expensive alternative ammunition. The Agency estimates this cost to total to £120.4m in PV terms. Section 2.6.1.3.1 of the Background Document contains full detail on the methodology and assumptions used to estimate the substitution costs to shooters. Totalled across the 20-year appraisal period, the Agency estimates these costs to amount to £375.2m in PV terms.