Mr Potter, great post.....but in my experience the more complex the system the more liable it is to manipulation. It allows those of us who understand stats and probabilities to exploit small loopholes. The current system is really simple, therefore all understand it and there is a lot to be said for that. Personally the birds only option is an anathema to me, you either embrace the nature of the competition or you don't......the nature of the majority of clay competitions is that the prizes must be paid for by the competitors....birds only allows some to avoid paying that price...!
I'm certainly no expert radrac but my initial thoughts are that, whilst not impossible, it is significantly more difficult to manipulate a rolling handicap system than a 6 monthly review classification. Someone could certainly shoot deliberately lower than their ability to attain a high number handicap but come the day when they decide to scoop the pot they won't know who they are shooting against other than for the overall high gun.
Never having walked round a field with a bag of sticks looking for a dimpled ball I don't know how the handicap system works in golf. Do hear the phrase sandbagger used occasionally among my colleges who bat the little ball so perhaps it isn't working as well as it could?
Many years ago I ran a simple handicap system just among myself & 2 other regular shooting companions. We each put up a fiver a comp and the winner took the pot. It worked brilliantly but mainly because the scores used to calculate the handicap (rolling previous 10 scores) were only those when all three of us shot together so we were always comparing like with like. Everyone of us knows shoots were most can build a good score, go to mostly those shoots and you will soon be in an artificially high class, conversely just shoot "tough" grounds or championships and your classification will suffer. Really not much can be done about this but it flags up an interesting phenomena "reverse sandbagging" I know a considerable number of local shooters myself included who are more interested in attaining that AA classification than they are about the £35 in the envelope. There are two shoots on my local circuit that "shoot a bit easy" and I go to them because they are local but I'm not bothered in the slightest that they're doing my averages no harm!! This in my case isn't the true picture because my personal 5 highest scores have been at 4 different grounds. I have been firmly stuck in A class for donkeys years usually right on the cusp of AA and it's been in the last few months of the classification period when I've let things slip. A smartarsed detective might analyze the pattern of my scores and conclude I'd manipulated staying in A class!
I would sell my firstborn into slavery to have the ability to get into AA, I know I could do it if I just went to 1 or 2 grounds and nowhere else for 12 months, in fact if I went to just 2 or 3 shoots at one of those grounds I might even make AAA, so I'd be guilty of manipulation but manipulation of my ego more than anything else!
In summary there isn't a perfect system and even if there was some peoples paranoia would read things into the vagaries of life that would suggest things were going on when they're not. In my 20 odd years of shooting English Sporting clays I've had my suspicion of cheating on occasion (claiming chips from obvious misses, claims of no birds and distractions when they miss etc.) but I've never had a suspicion that someone is sandbagging into a lower class in order to win money at a later date. As above I've only ever seen "ego bagging" (there I've invented a new term) and to be honest as long as the competitor still pays the competition fee then the winner is the true AA stars.
On a final note I'll give you two examples from my shooting diary this year which goes to show that there is nowt as queer as real life!
I think that there should be a new class introduced, I class, I for inconsistent. Let me say I've never deliberately missed a clay in my life (well other than within the FITASC International Sporting rules) you've only my word for that but rest assured thats a absolute fact.
Shot a 95 at a registered 100 birder at Fauxdegla, A class HG and 2nd overall to Kevin Mayor (97), was only a few months ago and I cannot remember how much was in the envelope. Fast forward a fortnight and I'm driving home from Coniston with the figure 58 resounding in my ears. Different shoot, different targets, different weather but a 37 bird difference, not very good at this bagging lark am I as that 58 was laughed out of my averages under the 10% rule.
Forward a couple of months to Kegworth and a FITASC Sporting shoot, now I love International Sporting, my absolute favorite discipline but I can't shoot it very often because those bastards in the National Lottery office refuse to pick my six numbers. Kegworth is by far the nearest ground that holds it and that's a 180 mile round trip. I digress, so not shot that much of it, 1700 birds over the last 10 years with an average over that period of 72%. Now when I first shot this disciple in the late 80's (at Kelbrook in Lancashire) I put an 82 in, probably a fluke but that one score put me in A class and as I didn't shoot it regularly I stayed in that class for the next 10+ years, never shot the 300 required to be re-classified. Anyway as the years slipped by so did my class and, oh the shame, D class was where I ended up.
So I'm at Kegworth last month and it clicked, every bird was the size of a dustbin lid and in slow motion, I could hardly miss and finished on a 94, well over 20 birds above my previous average. Oh deep joy, 2nd overall, Cheshire Champion, beat some very big names and pleasantly surprised to win D class! As I went up to get the envelope there was plenty of (good natured I hope) shouts of sandbagger and worse.
Those two examples show that in real life nothing is predictable and strange, rogue, results do pop up, perhaps not among the elite, a bad day for the top few is finishing 3 behind HG but for us Mr Joe Average, the swings are much greater, AAA one week lower C two weeks later. A class score from a genuine D class shooter. The FITASC Sporting score will, unless I shoot any more registered shoots this period mean I'm back into A class next time, I'm neither A nor D in my mind, top end C or lower B is where I should be but not under a classification system.
More I think about it the more I'm convinced that handicap system is the way to go.
Mr Potter