I don't doubt you are right but this is not about setting up a trap to throw constant angle and velocity its about variance in a box of cartridges and if you say a swing of about 100fps either way is going to be the cause of a miss I personally doubt that. As a trapshooter I do not even think about lead to be honest a use the swing of the gun to create the lead required. I think in trap if you start thinking about leading the target you are headed for trouble... someone else who shoots trap may come on and tell me different that is their prerogative this is about opinions. However the example you have chosen to use is not relevant to the question here because that is not what is going on when you get variance in a box of cartridges and a swing of 100fps either way will not cause a miss in my opinion. Now Ed has already stated that he shoots all sorts of dross he has been given as prizes what I would say is that when he shoots he has the knowledge of a world championship winner telling him if he is on it, slightly in front of centre it or behind centre and in your example adjust his shooting to compensate his lead so again I think your example is not a good model. If you had said that the velocity varied wildly one way or the other without sequence I could see misses being regular... no manufacturer makes that type of ammunition ...do they?The example of a miss by one inch is rhetorical, the fact is there is a difference in cartridge speeds and that will cause the shot mass to arrive later. There is no point applying mathematical equations which take the pattern size into account to help prove that misses can't be down to speed. The way we shoot is not in exact robotic movements, after a few years you begin to feel the lead, dare I say even see it.
If you set up a robotic arm to give centre breaks on a 40 yard crosser and then progressively drop the velocity there will come a time when the clay will be missed by a few inches time and again. The sweet spot of feeling and seeing the lead differs from person to person, it isn't that slow won't break, it's the manner and ease of those breaks and of course the quality of the break that builds confidence.
edit re robotic shooting I disagree. With respect some of the best trapshooters I have seen are just like a robot it makes them what they are! It is those who are not like a robot who do the missing bit.
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